Warning: The 2s10s Yield Curve Inversion Is The Deepest Since 1980s - This Is A Big DealšØ
Rather than just leave you with that, since yield curves are getting a lot of attention right now I thought I would do a short explaineršš¼
Why are they important?
Yield curve inversions have, historically, been one of the best recession forecasting tools we have. It has correctly predicted recessions for the last 50 years, the timing of that recession, however, can range anywhere from 5-24 months.
This particular yield curve, however, has now been inverted for many months already.
Whatās striking is that the current spread between the 10-year yield and 2-year yield (-70bps) is now greater than what we experienced before the dot com bubble and the global financial crisis.
This indicator is important because the Fed monitors it, this consequently shapes their outlook on monetary policy.
What does a normal yield curve look like and why?
Normally, longer duration bonds have higher yields than short-duration bonds, and the yield curve slopes upward to the right. A 'healthy' yield curve. This occurs when investors are optimistic about the prospects for longer-term growth and inflation of the economy.
Buyers tend to demand higher yields in order to lend their money over longer durations as they need to be compensated for the added risk for things like inflation, uncertainty and credit risk eroding cash flows.
How does it invert and what does it signal?
When the yield curve flattens or inverts, it signals that the market thinks the Fed is tightening monetary policy too aggressively.
When this happens, markets price in lower growth and lower inflation in the long run which, brings down yields on longer duration bonds.
That causes an inversion like we see right now.
Whatās next?
The Fed has already raised an eye-watering 3.75% this year, the most aggressive hiking cycle in monetary history. This has heavily influenced the short-end of the curve, moving yields up. With inflation still at multi-decade highs, the market is pricing in terminal rates of 5% next year, that means 1.25% or 5 hikes still to come before we see the peak.
This might be one of many indicators, that, when analysed together may cause the Fed to pivot and ease policy.
I hope this helps someone understand it better šŖš¼
#markets #yieldcurve #investing