How does change happen? If our systems and societies change in neat linear ways, then we are screwed. Our climate is changing faster than we are, and vested interests (notably oil/gas companies) are doing everything they can to slow down any real 'transition' to renewables and sustainable systems.
Thankfully, life isn't linear, and nor is culture change.
Back in the 1990's social scientists tracked how major social changes - on smoking and health, suffrage, technology adoption, etc. actually happened. None of them were linear. Instead, a theory of 'punctuated equilibrium' emerged in social science.
They discovered that in big, complex societies, most things are run by specialist groups. Experts and institutions are needed, with the technical knowledge to actually manage part of the big complexity - health services, energy policy, and even tiny parts of the system like pesticide regulation or social media algorithms. These systems aren’t very democratic and tend to stay very stable because they benefit the members of the group who run them (and those funding them).
In fact, this systemic homeostasis can persist far beyond when it fulfills any socially beneficial function. Parts of society can actively destroy collective value, but the built-in institutional and cultural ennui makes those systems seem impossible to change. That's the equilibrium bit.
But, if enough pressure builds up then...SNAP! These systems don’t shift gradually, because intense pressure has built up behind them, the change comes swifly. This is why history is interesting - it's all dramatic changes. Social transformation happening so quickly that life in the previous system becomes unimaginable. If you struggle to remember how we managed things before the internet/mobiles you know what I mean. That's the punctuated bit.
Punctuated equilibrium. We aren't going to have a linear energy 'transition' because the self-sustaining system won't allow it. Instead, all the change will happen at once.
The next few years are going to be a wild ride.
Thankfully, life isn't linear, and nor is culture change.
Back in the 1990's social scientists tracked how major social changes - on smoking and health, suffrage, technology adoption, etc. actually happened. None of them were linear. Instead, a theory of 'punctuated equilibrium' emerged in social science.
They discovered that in big, complex societies, most things are run by specialist groups. Experts and institutions are needed, with the technical knowledge to actually manage part of the big complexity - health services, energy policy, and even tiny parts of the system like pesticide regulation or social media algorithms. These systems aren’t very democratic and tend to stay very stable because they benefit the members of the group who run them (and those funding them).
In fact, this systemic homeostasis can persist far beyond when it fulfills any socially beneficial function. Parts of society can actively destroy collective value, but the built-in institutional and cultural ennui makes those systems seem impossible to change. That's the equilibrium bit.
But, if enough pressure builds up then...SNAP! These systems don’t shift gradually, because intense pressure has built up behind them, the change comes swifly. This is why history is interesting - it's all dramatic changes. Social transformation happening so quickly that life in the previous system becomes unimaginable. If you struggle to remember how we managed things before the internet/mobiles you know what I mean. That's the punctuated bit.
Punctuated equilibrium. We aren't going to have a linear energy 'transition' because the self-sustaining system won't allow it. Instead, all the change will happen at once.
The next few years are going to be a wild ride.
