Latinometrics

☠️ → 🕊️ From the world's most unsafe country to second safest in the Western Hemisphere in just a few years? Here's El Salvador's story. ↓

Does a mano dura — literally “strong hand” — work against crime? El Salvador has certainly become a case study in recent years. President Nayib Bukele entered office in 2019 with a promise to crack down on gangs and crime in what was once the world’s most unsafe country. Bukele has delivered on the promise — the country's prison population has more than tripled in only a few years.

El Salvador's incarceration rate has hit 1.6K per 100,000, or 1.6% of the population. This rate is the highest share anywhere in the world by a wide margin; it's twice as high as the 2nd highest country, Cuba.

Many of the people imprisoned are awaiting due legal process and were apprehended for suspected gang involvement. Statistically speaking, that means that, almost certainly, there are at least a few cases of innocent people currently sitting in jail.

Perhaps the most relevant metric for measuring the safety of a country is its homicide rate. Out of all the crimes we don't want to be victims of, murder is at the top of everyone's list. By this metric, El Salvador has become safer than the United States and is now only second to Canada in the entire Western Hemisphere.

Giving all the credit to Bukele is a tempting story; however, as our chart shows, the declining trend started before he took office in 2019. He certainly drove El Salvador to the finish line with his aggressive crackdown, helping to turn a country once riddled by homicides into one that is as safe or safer than some of the world's top economies.

A couple of factors demonstrate the increased safety of the country. First, Nayib Bukele is considered by some sources to be the world's most popular leader. Secondly, fewer Salvadoreans are leaving their home country; there was a 37% drop in apprehensions at the US border in 2023 compared to the previous year. This drop comes despite an overall record high of migrant apprehension.

So, a firm hand against crime improves safety in the short run, and Latin Americans are paying attention. It's tough to argue against mano-dura policies, given they mean thousands of fewer lives are taken by violence each year. But only time will tell what the long-term effects of Bukele's effective yet increasingly authoritarian tactics are.

🛒 🔴 What happens when a Mexican corner store becomes more powerful than Walmart? Let's explore Oxxo's expansion outside Mexico↓🧵

We’ll be honest: OXXO is one of our favorite brands. And no, they didn’t pay us to say that.

Can you blame us? Latinometrics was founded in Torreón, a town with no fewer than eighteen Oxxo locations. Since being founded in Monterrey in 1976 as a vendor of beers, cigarettes, and snacks, Oxxo has become the ubiquitous superstar of Mexican convenience stores.

Not that we’re implying this phenomenon is Mexico’s alone to enjoy.

While it’s been spreading overseas for years now, including early expansions into Colombia and the US state of Texas, Oxxo has been seemingly unstoppable since the pandemic, soaring from 300 international locations in 2021 to over 1.1K by this year.

That’s growth of over 250% in just three years, including the impressive 500+ stores opened in Brazil’s sprawling economic capital, São Paulo.

This inexorable rise has far outpaced far older South American retail peers like Chile’s Falabella or Colombia’s Grupo Éxito.

In fact, it’s even penetrated many of their core markets, showing perhaps that the future of Latin American retail has fluorescent lighting and massive red and yellow ads on the windows.

Part of Oxxo’s appeal is its position as a one-stop shop for all your everyday needs. Long gone are the days of being a mere cigarette and booze vendor; today customers can pay bills, buy bus and plane tickets, and even send money to friends and family.

This has helped the convenience store transcend the confines of retail to become an establishment rivalling the world’s hegemons. Its 24K+ store locations make it more widespread and prominent than Walmart, coffee giant Starbucks, and even the famed Golden Arches.

Turns out, the secret to beating Ronald McDonald himself to the top comes from providing for all needs, including a relatively recent fintech offering, Spin by Oxxo (Digital@FEMSA).

Launched in late 2021, Spin’s soaring success has outpaced most Latin American fintech competitors to reach 62.6M customers—or, y’know, half of the total Mexican population. Honestly, most government programs will reach fewer citizens than this fintech.

Now, we do have a small caveat when extolling the virtues of Oxxo’s crown jewel. Out of the tens of millions of Spin users, just under half are inactive, meaning their debit cards and corresponding apps are going unused and untouched.

While 32M active users (of which two-thirds use the Premia loyalty rewards program) are nothing to scoff at, Oxxo must be a bit concerned by the number of inactive customers on their app.

Or maybe not. After all, over 13M Mexicans shop at Oxxo every day. They pay their bills, feed their families, even secure travel tickets.

In less than 50 years, Oxxo has become the hemisphere's leading convenience store, with potential global dominance as FEMSA expands into Europe and the US, challenging 7-Eleven's market position.