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Shreyans Singh

Shreyans Singh

These are the best posts from Shreyans Singh.

15 viral posts with 37,520 likes, 1,044 comments, and 315 shares.
11 image posts, 0 carousel posts, 0 video posts, 4 text posts.

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Best Posts by Shreyans Singh on LinkedIn

Why Silicon Valley Bank situation will never happen in India
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First Bournvita, now Maggi. This guy is a rare type of influencer- genuine, no BS, and a force of good in society.
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25% rise in two days. Close to 1 trillion valuation! Nvidia is on fiređŸ”„

Why? Let's find out👇👇

Whenever a new technology is invented, like the internet, smartphone, or cloud, it triggers a race.

A race among companies to dominate that new technology.

Initially, predicting who will win the race is very difficult.

For example: 20 years later, we know that Google won the Internet race and Yahoo lost. But initially, it was very difficult to predict this.

To solve this problem, stock market investors use the “picks and shovels investment strategy”.

According to this strategy: if you can’t figure out who will win the race, betting on the shoe company is a safe option.

Because everyone needs shoes to run the race, the shoe company will profit regardless of who wins.

During the internet race, the shoe company was Intel.

Stock market investors couldn’t figure out who will win the internet race. But they knew everyone needed Intel processors to run the race, so Intel would profit regardless of who won.

The result? Intel shares📈📈. Intel reached half a trillion dollars in valuation.

Back to Nvidia.

Right now, we are in the early days of AI race. Stock market investors can't figure out who will win.

So they are using the “picks and shovels investment strategy”.

In AI race, the shoe company is Nvidia.

Every company that wants to run the AI race needs Nvidia GPUs to train AI models.

Regardless of who wins the AI race, NVIDIA will sell lots of GPUs.

As a result: Nvidia shares🚀🚀

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Earlier, Byjus said revenue was 4400 crore. But now they’re saying, lol sorry guys it’s actually 2280 crore.

What happened to the remaining 2000 crore? Let’s find out👇👇

When you are a small startup, life is simple. Whatever money comes from customers, you count it as revenue.

But when you become a big startup, life is complicated. You have to follow “revenue recognition”.

Basically, it means that you cannot count everything as revenue. You have to follow certain rules(ASC 606).

If a customer signed a 10-year contract worth 1 crore, as a small startup you would count the whole 1 crore in this year’s revenue.

This is obviously wrong. 1 crore is your revenue for the next 10 years, not this year. You cannot count the next 10 years’ revenue in this year’s revenue.

As a big startup, you can only count 10 lakhs(1 crore divided by 10 years) in this year’s revenue. This is revenue recognition.

You are only counting that revenue whose services you have provided.

Startups don’t like revenue recognition.

They prefer the small-startup method of counting revenue so that they can report awesome revenues and impress investors and increase valuation.

This brings us to Byjus.

For a long time, Byjus was counting revenue using the small startup method.

Parents paid for 10-year Byjus subscription, and Byjus counted it all in the current year’s revenue.

This impressed investors and increased valuation and Byjus became the biggest edtech startup in the world.

But this time, their auditor Deloitte gave them bad news: you are a big startup now. You have to follow revenue recognition.

Byjus didn’t like it. They had already reported an awesome 4400 crore revenue. Investors were happy.

If they went back and changed the revenue, it would be very bad for Byjus.

This became a big issue.

Byjus delayed filing their annual financial report for 18 months.

Journalists picked up on the delay and began investigating.

Ministry of Corporate Affairs noticed the delay and asked Byjus about it.

In the end, Byjus did the right thing: it listened to Deloitte and acted like a big startup and did revenue recognition.

From ET: “Deloitte said that Byjus revenues from online courses, which were previously recognized fully on commencement of contract, has been adjusted to be recognized rateably over the period of contract”.

As a result, Byjus revenue decreased from 4400 crore to 2280 crore.

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I found out how ChatGPT works👇
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Indian wedding industry is bigger than the car, steel and technology industries!!

It's worth $130 billion, which means it's the 4th biggest industry in India, behind the energy, banking, and insurance industries.

Damn!

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Who is Amazon's biggest competitor? Is it Walmart? Or Flipkart? Or Coupang? Or Mercado Libre?

The correct answer- none of these. Amazon's biggest competitor, and most dangerous threat is a Canadian startup started in 2006 called Shopify.

That doesn't make sense, right? On Amazon, there are millions of products we can buy. But go to Shopify dot com, and there is nothing to buy.

This, my friends, is exactly what makes Shopify so dangerous. Let me explain.

Amazon treats the shopkeepers on its platform as garbage.

It favors products by big companies, puts the products of shopkeepers at bottom of the search results, copies the products of shopkeepers and sells them as Amazon Basics, and bans shopkeepers from Amazon if they complain.

Shopify realized that shopkeepers deserved better.

So it came up with a radical new idea- Why not empower the shopkeepers and give them tools to fight against Amazon?

That's what they did- Using Shopify, shopkeepers can set up their own online store, and sell directly to their customers.

Shopkeepers don't have to worry about paying Amazon for ads or standing out in the search results or getting banned. They have complete freedom with their online store.

Shopify's strategy is clearly working- More and more shopkeepers are leaving Amazon and starting their own online store using Shopify.

That's why Shopify is Amazon's biggest competitor and most dangerous threat.

PS: 2000+ people read my free email newsletter on technology. I'm sure you'll also love reading it. Subscribe: shreyanssingh.substack.com
I was wrong. Google has not lost the AI race.

They have a super smart AI strategy. Check it out👇

So far, I was berating Google because they haven’t launched any AI product in the public while competitors like ChatGPT have already crossed 100 milion users.

But now, I think I understand the reason why they haven’t launched AI in the public.

Google thinks that giving AI directly to people won’t be very useful.

Just take ChatGPT’s example: people were initially amazed, but after a while they got bored because they didn’t have much use for it.

Out of 100 million, only a few users were using it regularly.

That’s why Google doesn’t want to compete with ChatGPT: giving AI directly to people won’t be useful.

But indirectly, AI will be very useful to people.

Adding AI to products will make the products 10x better for their users.

For example, Notion and Duolingo have added AI(GPT4). TikTok and Insta and Youtube and Spotify use AI to show us the most relevant content.

Google also wants to do this.

Billions of people use Google’s services like Gmail and Maps. Google can add AI to massively improve these services.

This is exactly what Google showed in yesterday’s demo.

They added AI to Gmail, Docs, Sheets, Slides, Images!

📍Gmail: use AI to draft, reply and summarize emails

📍Docs: use AI to brainstorm and write

📍Slides: use AI to auto-generate images, audio and video for your deck

📍Meet: use AI to summarize meetings and capture notes

📍Sheets: use AI to generate formulas

By adding AI to its services, Google made them 10x better for billions of users!

So this is Google’s AI strategy: use AI indirectly, not directly.

Smart strategy, right?

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When OpenAI launched ChatGPT, everyone was amazed.

Except Elon Musk.

He had founded OpenAI. He had funded OpenAI.

He wanted to be the visionary who brought AI into the world.

Instead, he had to leave OpenAI after a power struggle.

So, he started another AI company and decided to beat OpenAI.

Thus, xAI was born.

Beating OpenAI was an impossible goal.

They had more funding, researchers, GPUs, products, and users. They were years ahead in every respect.

But doing impossible stuff was Elon Musk’s speciality.

First, he got the data. His companies, Tesla and Twitter, had tons of proprietary data. He got it to xAI, for training a new AI model called Grok.

He also cut off OpenAI’s access to Twitter.

He hired Igor Babuschkin, ex-Google’s DeepMind and ex-OpenAI, to build the new AI.

Nvidia GPUs were out of stock everywhere. So Elon called his friend Larry Ellison, CEO of Oracle, and got access to a huge number of Oracle GPUs.

He also diverted 12,000 Nvidia GPUs from Tesla to xAI.

Then, he started building a huge data centre in Memphis called Colossus.

He didn’t have time for lengthy construction planning. He decided to deal with problems on the fly.

When they didn’t get approval for power, they put natural gas generators in the parking lot.

By early September, Colossus came online.

It was built in a record 122 days instead of the usual 7-8 months.

Today, xAI is valued at $50 billion, making it the second biggest AI company, after OpenAI.

It has $11 billion in funding and 1 lakh Nvidia chips, and they plan to double this number soon.

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How to get rich quickly?

Just invest in any small edtech company and wait for Byjus to acquire it.
Amazon, Meta, Google, Microsoft, AMD: All of them are building AI chips to compete with Nvidia. But Nvidia isn’t worried. Why? Because Nvidia has a secret weapon.

Software.

People think that AI chips are Nvidia’s only strong point.

Nope.

Nvidia’s AI chips are awesome. But Nvidia realized long ago that big tech companies with big budgets can make more awesome chips.

To defend against such tough competition, Nvidia built a secret weapon.

Software.

Nvidia built a software called CUDA. CUDA is used for programming Nvidia GPU’s.

Nvidia built another software called AI Enterprise. Its an all-in-one software for AI: data processing, model training, inference, deployment.

Both these software work only on Nvidia’s AI chips.

Because Nvidia’s AI chips dominate the market(85% market share), Nvidia’s software dominates the market.

The result? Nvidia’s software has a huge developer base.

There are millions of developers building products using Nvidia’s software. There’s a huge software ecosystem around Nvidia.

This is Nvidia’s secret weapon.

Someone might copy an AI chip. But no one can copy a huge developer base.

Even if Amazon/Google/Meta/Microsoft/AMD make a better AI chip than Nvidia, they will have to convince developers to switch from Nvidia.

That will be very difficult.

New chips will have a small market share. New chips will have a small developer base. New chips will have a small software ecosystem.

It doesn’t make sense for developers to build products for small market with small developer base and small software ecosystem.

Plus, developers have specifically optimized their software for Nvidia’s AI chips. With new chips, developers will have to rewrite their entire software.

Definitely won’t happen.

That’s why Nvidia isn’t worried about competition from bigtech companies.

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Disney wants to sell Hotstar. But why? Let’s find out👇👇

Because Hotstar is a bad business.

Disney got Hotstar 4 years ago, when they acquired Fox for 71 billion.

At that time, Hotstar was the prize asset of Fox. It had 150M subscribers and big titles like IPL.

Fox told Disney that Hotstar was growing rapidly and would reach $1 billion EBITDA in one year.

LOL.

1. Hotstar’s growth slowed down because of tough competition(Netflix, Jio Cinema, Prime Video) and lost titles(IPL, F1, HBO). Hotstar will lose ~1 crore subscribers because they lost IPL.

2. Hotstar never got to $1 billion EBITDA. Its EBITDA is dropping, and soon it will slip into losses. Revenue down 20% and EBITDA down 50%. Plus, they will post a loss in 2024.

3. Disney doesn’t want to fight for more Hotstar subscribers because the average revenue they get from every new subscriber is very low($0.59).

If Disney had more time, they could fix Hotstar.

But Disney is under a lot of pressure.

The new CEO publicly promised to make Disney’s streaming division profitable by September 2024.

The problem: September 2024 is just 13 months away. And Disney’s streaming division is nowhere near profitability.

Disney’s streaming division has burnt a total of 10 billion. In fact, they have burnt 1 billion in the last three months.

The new CEO has no time to fix Hotstar. That’s why he wants to get rid of it.

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On 21st February, Google’s AI (Gemini) made a mistake.

Google immediately lost $90 billion from its market cap.

People’s thinking: Because their AI made a mistake, Google doesn’t know how to make AI. RIP Google.

The same thing happened last year in February.

Google’s AI(Bard) made a mistake and Google lost $100 billion from its market cap.

Two important lessons here:

1. February is a bad time for Google.
2. People are massively underestimating Google’s AI power.

Gemini is an incredibly powerful AI.

It has a capacity of 10 lakh tokens, compared to GPT4’s 1 lakh tokens.

Its 20 times cheaper than GPT4.

It beats GPT-4 on 30 out of 32 AI performance tests(benchmarks).

The second version(Gemini 1.5) is even more amazing.

It can analyze hour-long videos, 30,000 lines of code, and make $100 billion losses in market cap.

People were afraid that ChatGPT will disrupt Google Search.

But people forget that Google Search has faced multiple disruptions over the last 20 years and it won every time.

(List of disruptions: desktop to mobile shift, social media, verticalized search)

To fight the AI disruption, Google launched Search Generative Experience.

It gives an AI generated answer to your google search so that you don’t have to click on ten blue links.

Not just Search, Google is putting AI into all its products: Gmail, Maps, Photos, Docs, Assistant, Cloud, and Pixel smartphones.

Pixel 8 phone uses Gemini for AI features like smart recording, smart reply, etc.

Bloomberg reported that Apple is talking with Google to use Gemini in iPhones.

Samsung signed an exclusive multi-year deal with Google to use Gemini in Samsung phones.

This year, Samsung’s S24 series phones are using Gemini for AI features like Circle To Search, Magic Compose, live-translate phone calls, transcribe voice recordings, summarise web articles, fix handwriting.

Samsung phones are also using Google’s Imagen2 AI for photo editing features.

Still think RIP Google?

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Bye bye BITS Goa. 3 years of incredible college life comes to an end. Going to miss you sooooo much 😭😭

Signing off,
Shreyans Singh
2019A7PS0078G
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I love how Hotstar cares so much about user privacy. I watched modern family on hotstar for an hour, opened insta and my feed was full of modern family reels.

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