Aviral Bhatnagar

After taking the CAT, I pinged a senior who was at IIM A.

“I attempted 26/30 in Quant and 27/30 in VA/LR“ I told him hopefully.

“Dude, you left 7 questions? No chance of getting more than 99 percentile even if you get all of them right“

I was targeting IIM A/B/C and his statement left me completely without hope.

Having given up, I dreaded the result day. All expectations were dashed. I stopped preparing for interviews.

On the day of the result, I requested my Dad to check the result. Expecting the worst - he came out of the room with what seemed like anger.

“You've scored 99.99! 100 percentile in VA! Why were you telling me you had no chance and stop preparing?“

The funny thing was - I even outscored my senior.

I learnt a big lesson that day - your context is only yours.

Nobody can predict the outcome of your situation better than you. Similarly, never predict the outcome for someone else as you will never have full context.

Listen to everyone, but always follow your own judgement.

If you look at people's DPs on Whatsapp, you begin to realize what truly matters.

It almost never is a picture of them at work or their career.

It almost always is with their kid, spouse, parent, sibling, close friend.

In the end, family is what matters.

Here's our piece on PhonePe's iconic rise: https://lnkd.in/dXwEAzmR

$170Bn Adobe is acquiring Figma for $20B

Figma's annual revenue run rate is ~$200M

~100x revenue multiple is for Figma's 100% growth

Figma charges ~$200/user/yr, which means Adobe is accessing 1M+ users

Largest private software takeover is to cement Adobe's design dominance

AJVC had a goal of 1,000 startup applications at 12 months of fund launch, we have crossed that target in 2 days

The application data has been an eye-opening experience, teaching me the following:
- I seriously underestimated the demand for pre-seed capital in India, it is a huge, underserved market
- There is massive latent demand for pre-seed investments which is hidden because the teams haven't incorporated, 37% of applicants don't even have a company because of limited capital
- Entrepreneurs are not concentrated in one city, Bangalore tops but accounts for just 27% of teams, 13% of teams are outside big metros
- Quality of top teams and ideas is incredible; there is a lot of heart/soul in the applications
- Ideas are being tried in every sector including health, education, SaaS, food, media, logistics, the spread is incredible
- 80% of applicants came through social media, just 6% from referrals, which means that warm connects can be quite hard for founders
- Founders absolutely love the 3 mins it took to fill the form and want to hear a yes/no, what they are disheartened by is no response for months after effort
- Technology/data can be a serious enabler in pre-seed investing

I will endeavour to increase the number of teams we invest in every year. I also hope there is an emergence of more such funds - there is a lot to be done

India needs enabling entrepreneurship and the backing of courage over the next decade

Why do Flipkart and Amazon keep their Big Sale festivals on the same days?

Imagine you are a lemonade stand owner on a long beach.

You notice that customers come only from one side (let’s say the right side). Where would you place your shop?

On the right side.

Now, a friend of yours sees that you are doing pretty well. Where will your friend open her lemonade shop?

Exactly right next you, because she doesn’t want to lose customers who will come to you first.

What if you had customers coming in from both sides? Where would you place your stand?

Right in the centre.

Now think about your real life experiences. Why do you see McDonald's so close to Burger King? Or car stores right next to each other? Or furniture shops all on the same strip?

This is nothing but central place theory or the reason why malls or cities exist.

In “space“, you will be there where your competition is. You will do the same in “time“.

If your competition is attracting similar customers at a particular point in time, you will ensure that you are there as well. This is especially true if customers believe what you and your competition are selling are very similar. Later/farther than your competition means losing customers.

Amazon & Flipkart need to have their Sales on the same days, or they lose

I would come top of my class in school almost certainly from 1st to 3rd grade

DPS Kanpur was one of the best schools in the city. I was one of the best kids. My eyes always were on the bigger prize ahead. I wouldn’t notice most students except my close friends or the other toppers. After all, everyone believed I was destined for bigger things.

My streak of doing well in school continued long afterwards

I ended up at the top of my school in Pune in my 10th board exams. I was in the top 3 boys in the city. I was doing so well that it was clear nothing could stop me

I picked science, took the JEE, and made it to IIT Bombay

A few days after my result, and congratulations on my post, my Facebook message lit up. New message from an unknown person.

“Were you at DPS Kanpur in 1st standard?”

Of course, I was at DPS Kanpur. I reverted with the affirmative

“I was too. Do you remember me? What are you doing now?”

As you remember, I was one of the best kids. I hardly focused on who the others where. I replied confidently that I had done well and I was joining IIT Bombay.

“Oh, that’s awesome. I took science, too. Congrats. You must have got an amazing rank. What was it?”

Before the person finished typing the whole message, I continued with my confidence that my rank was 638

“Wow. I was just going to say I plan to join IIT Bombay or IIT Delhi. I got around 150”

150? Rank or marks? From DPS Kanpur, where I was top? This was suddenly the biggest plot twist I had experienced in my life. As I checked the rank list, it was the truth. From flying high for a decade, I had been beaten hands down. In a decade, I was topped by someone I hadn’t noticed. I learned a big lesson that day.

Whoever you may be, do not underestimate anyone

We regularly do this. NYT wrote an article in 2013 showing India with a cow, knocking to enter an Elite Space Club. Today, India is the first country to be on the Moon's South Pole. Everyone wrote off Jeff Bezos in 2000 when Amazon crashed. Today, it is the Everything Store. Your bright intern maybe the boss of a unicorn one day. Your quiet college mate may become a state’s chief minister.

Human potential is beautiful

I see this happen with startups all the time. The underdogs, that were ignored, eventually win. It is perhaps what fuels them. The outcome may not be visible in the short term. But eventually, individuals with determination and effort compound so dramatically, that they blow past everyone else.

Never underestimate anyone because over a 10-year time frame they may end up doing magic

RV College of Engineering charges 64 lakhs for a management quota seat in Computer Science

The average placement in the department is 11 lakhs, effectively taking a full 6 years of a young career to break even

Economics for students is broken, but clearly not for colleges

IIT JEE and UPSC are probably the biggest enablers of upward mobility in the world, because there is no way the wealthy can buy their way to a seat

What is some good advice for fresh graduates who are about to join the corporate world?

From my experience, I have found that there are just two things:

1. Social skills matter a lot more than you think
2. Technical skills matter a lot less than you think

Keep this in mind, and you’ll be absolutely fine.

Learn more about how Venture Highway's investment Kula is reimagining human capital: https://www.kula.ai/

“I am choosing the startup over the big company”

“Woah, that’s nice. What’s the offer like?” I asked my just graduating friend a couple of years ago

“9 lakhs, it’s around 4 lakhs lesser than the company. I know.”

“Interesting, so what’s driving your decision?”

“Man, we’re young right now and learning is really important. 3–4 lakhs today seems big, but is not a big sacrifice in the long run.”

“So you’re not driven by money?”

“Haha, no man. It doesn’t drive me, but I do think about it. I think learning today will reap a lot of benefits tomorrow, much larger than the 3–4 lakhs. That’s the bet, I guess.”

“Have you read about the time value of money?” I laughed

“I haven’t done that calculation, but I think investing in myself today is definitely going to be worth it”

When you’re young, and don’t have a family to support (usually the case) - it’s always better to put a larger value to learning than money.

By the time you’re older, you will be in the driving seat because you would have learnt so deeply, making money will be a byproduct of what you do.

Tune in to my conversation with Ajinkya Kulkarni of Growfix (https://bit.ly/2WwWe56) as we discuss money, fintech and building startups.

I was curious to understand if PayTm's entrance into movie tickets was massively disrupting BookMyShow's dominance.

PayTm, through its 350MM+ users, is 10x bigger than BookMyShow's ~50MM. By adding a cashback or discount, PayTm has strongly incentivized its already existing user base to purchase tickets.

From having virtually no competition in movies, BMS would sell 13MM tickets, v/s 5MM sold on PayTm

But looking at BMS' focus as movies is missing the bigger picture.

BMS had been building capabilities to ticket for events since IPL 2009. Events are an intricate, complex activity v/s “standardized“ movies, and BMS was already two steps ahead.

BMS is compared to US' $10Bn GMV movie ticket platform Ticketmaster, but it is actually evolving into live events platform LiveNation. Which company owns TicketMaster?

LiveNation, of course.

Through its acquisition of Townscript, partnering with shows and building event capabilities, BMS has evolved into a far bigger giant

It is little wonder ~50% of its revenue comes from events, which are higher margin. It is expanding into live events in other geos. BMS plans to produce its own events, similar to “white label“ products such as Swiggy Pop or Amazon Basics.

BookMyShow will help you book every show, and it doesn't mean only movies

I love Pune as a city because it's good at everything and great/terrible at nothing

Classic jack-of-all-trades generalist city

VCs when founders ask for capital in this market:

Read my essay on health here: https://lnkd.in/eFpJSgq

India's GDP per capita was 70% of Pakistan's in 1992

In fact, the average Pakistani was richer than the Indian till 2004

Today, India's GDP per capita is 50% higher than Pakistan's

Pakistan today has $3Bn of reserves India has $600Bn, India's GDP is 10x

Good governance wins

India has ~100 private $1Bn+ unicorns, generating a revenue of $36B and are worth $360B, a 10x multiple

Interestingly, India has ~280 public $1Bn+ companies, generating a revenue of ~$1.4Tn and are worth $2.7Tn, a 1.9x multiple

Private markets are clearly yet to correct

FastTag is the quiet UPI:

FY17: 660 Cr
FY18: 3,300 Cr
FY19: 5,760 Cr
FY20: 11,290 Cr
FY21: 22,700 Cr
FY22: 38,041 Cr
FY23: 70,000 Cr

100x in the last 6 years, saving thousands of crores in fuel and time

Porsche is tracking to sell 750 cars a year in India, at a likely average price of ~1.5Cr

1,000 Crs of sales by selling less than 1000 units, a turnover most Indian businesses would kill for

Fortune is at the top of the pyramid

Gyms are not only good for better fitness

People in gyms tend to be fitter and more keen to elevate their health

In the gym, you feel like everyone is so fit and you therefore up your fitness habits

Surrounding yourself with the right people can help you build better habits

Population of India: 1.38B
Population of Rest of 2023 WC Countries: 0.81B

New Zealand is so small Dharamshala is the only match location that has a population smaller than it

Quite crazy how large India's fan base is and how intimidating it would be to play in India

We talk very little about UPI - it is probably the most incredible Indian tech story of the last few years

World-class, read more here: https://lnkd.in/dScXdtc7

With its “almost zero” fees, I wondered if Zerodha makes any profit

The co. is a tech-driven “discount brokerage”, a stockbroker that takes low commissions from trades it executes

As each trade is tech-enabled, commissions are pure margin

Zerodha has ~1MM users. Assuming 50% of users actively trade, you have 500K users

The co. claims it is the 3rd largest brokerage, doing 2MM trades/day. This implies an avg. user does 4 trades/day.

Assuming 80% of the 2MM trades are at INR 20, the company is likely at an annual revenue run rate of 2*0.8*20*252 = 800 Cr ($100MM)

With 40% profits it spent INR 480Cr (~50% of 800Cr).

With ~1000 employees, assuming avg. salary to be INR 1.5 MM, payroll is ~INR 150Cr. Assume the rest is on marketing, which is ~300Cr. Users went from ~100K to ~500K, adding ~400K users. Customer acquisition cost (CAC) was thus INR 300Cr/400K = ~INR 7.5 K (or ~$110)

Customer do 4 INR 20 trades/day, taking 90 days (~7500/80) recover CAC from fees.

Trading is a trust business. While Zerodha may have a fairly high CAC it would have a phenomenal lifetime value.

Beyond the 90-day payback mark, it is pure gross profit per customer. It is little wonder that Zerodha is a bootstrapped unicorn.

With details here (https://bit.ly/2YxEJTG) Zerodha is a money making machine.

Putting in long hours at work sometimes is less for the work, and more to manage personal insecurities.

The large difference in the number of people using Whatsapp today v/s Signal tells you acquisition is only step one.

Retention is everything.

A close friend of mine is the CXO of a startup that is aggressively expanding.

Over dinner one day, I was feeling incredibly proud of how well he is doing. I congratulated him, and said, “Man, how does it feel to be running such a high growth company?”

Pat came his reply, with a smile “It’s uncomfortable”

I was puzzled with his response and enquired why - “One thing I have learnt is that we have to wake up every day and do something that is extremely hard in the market - if we do the easy stuff, we will not create any value.

It’s an uncomfortable situation, dealing with new and difficult things. But that’s exactly why clients come to us - because we have got so good at solving hard problems and creating value. We thrive in the uncomfortable.”

It’s incredible, but your life is just like a startup - especially when you’re young. Applying the same logic to personal growth yields exactly the same results - always challenge yourself to do difficult things.

To grow personally, you must thrive in the discomfort of doing difficult things.

Learn more about India building for the world here: https://lnkd.in/eP8-DDsZ

$10Bn+ market cap companies:

China: 124
India: 100
Brazil: 20
Korea: 19

From 30 in 2019, India has ~3x to now be in touching distance of China

Emerging market that is no longer small

I was puzzled how 4-year-old upstart Udaan justified being a $3Bn unicorn.

Udaan recently started earning revenue. It is in the small B2B e-commerce market that already has $100MM+ IndiaMart. It caters to scattered/diverse small biz

But deeper probing shows the co. started by ex-Flipsters could be building India’s Alibaba

Udaan is tapping into the huge $400Bn B2B comerce market. B2B com is expected to 2x by 2021, growing faster than the ~$1Tn B2C com

In 2016, data exploded at Udaan’s start, making it easier to access scattered small biz. Like content aggregator FB exploded with the internet, small biz aggregator Udaan grew tremendously with mobile

Reaching almost 3MM retailers, Udaan is strikingly similar to Chinese giant Alibaba

Alibaba started not as B2C, but like Udaan’s B2B trading platform

Starting as a small biz aggregator, Alibaba began adding layers of services to cater to these small biz. Alipay, AliExpress, Taobao and myriad services were built on Alibaba to monetize

By enabling business commerce, Alibaba grew to $440Bn by sitting on the flow of commerce

Udaan could do the same, via logistics, finance and discovery it provides. It could even build Flipkart

With details here (https://bit.ly/3je1Iuk) Udaan is not Flipkart 2.0, but likely India’s Alibaba

I hated sleeping on time, going to the gym, eating right.

It felt very constraining. It seemed so much better to binge watch TV shows, sleep longer and eat whatever I liked. If I slept well one day, or went to the gym one day, or ate well one day, it didn’t really change anything.

But I also began to realize that my life was incredibly chaotic. I felt dissatisfied.

I should have been satisfied. After all, I was doing what I wanted to. It is then I began to realize that I was looking at things all wrong.

Doing things well for one day probably did not change anything. But one week, one month, one year might. I started a test experiment by planning my days and fixing the time I slept and woke up.

Ironically, the “discipline” set me free.

I could do more in the same day. I felt like working out. My work productivity improved substantially. It felt a lot better, surprisingly.

By building habits and a rhythm to my life, I could do more. I didn’t have to convince myself to follow those habits, doing so made me feel better. Personal “discipline” is quite easy because you feel so much better. Those who are now “addicted” to the gym will know what I mean.

All you need to do is be patient while building habits, and know it will make you feel better if you remain patient.

I now love sleeping on time, going to the gym, eating right.

Zomato valuation:

Jan 2021: 40,000 Cr
Jan 2022: 100,000 Cr
Jan 2023: 40,000 Cr
Jan 2024: 100,000 Cr

Timing the market is sometimes as important as time in the market

“I’m taking up this offer because it provides me many options. I don’t need to commit to anything yet” said my junior happily as she secured an offer from a top tier consulting firm

The offer was top notch. Top tier firm paying more than 35L per annum. Excellent brand name. Ability to travel and work with CEOs. Options aplenty. It was the dream job. Yet it was a happy looking situation hiding a deeper phobia underneath

The phobia of commitment

I think my generation and the decade after is spoiled for choice. Don’t like a boss? Leave. Don’t feel like working? Stop working. It isn’t just limited to careers. Want to leave a relationship? Walk away. Looking for a new relationship? Swipe away. Don’t like a locality? Leave. Don’t like the food cooked at home? Order in. Don’t want to watch what your friends are? Plug in headphones and watch on your phone

Commitment has changed from being a feature of great lives, to a bug

Don’t get me wrong. I think having choice is great. More choice is usually progress. But a lot of us are hiding behind the comfort of choice. We want to avoid the phobia of commitment. What if this startup fails? What if my long-term relationship fails? What if this house isn’t worth it? What if my friends leave me?

The phobia of commitment powered by the tyranny of options

Unfortunately, commitment is hard. Ask me about it. I almost quit my fledgling startup investing journey in year 1 as a VC. I was disilusioned with how “slow” it was. My commitment was not there. But I am thankful I stayed the course. I would not be running a fund today if I gave up then

Commitment makes good things happen, but they take time

The beauty of commitment is seen in compounding. The growth from year 1 to year 2, is much lesser than 2 to 3. Year 8 to 9 can be 10x more than year 1 to 2. Commitment enables compounding in everything

Career. Relationships. Capital. Health

My junior one year into her job said that “I don’t feel like I am building anything long term”. I had told her she would feel this soon. She switched to a place to build a longer career. “I needed to commit to one thing, and do it well”. I think she did the right thing

Great things are built with commitment

Subscribe to our newly launched YouTube channel for getting smarter on tech: https://lnkd.in/eZyWwQf

“Yesterday I was clever so I wanted to change the world

Today I am wise so I am changing myself“

- Rumi

TCS just added 625 people net, hiring 43K just a few years ago

In 2025, Jio laid off 1K employees, Flipkart fired ANS Commerce, Dr Reddy's is laying off 500, Ola Electric 1,000, IITs are tracking 80% placements

The job market is brutal, all sectors and stages

IIT Delhi founder top 10 unicorns:

Flipkart ($18B)
Zomato ($8B)
Meesho ($5B)
OfBusiness ($5B)
Delhivery ($3B)
Udaan ($3B)
Groww ($3B)
BharatPe ($3B)
Policy Bazaar ($3B)
UpGrad ($2.5B)

20 unicorns, $75B+ value, 3 public tech cos, India's largest exit

All from 1 college

The dark horse of Indian SaaS is not superstar Zoho/Freshworks but under the radar unicorn Chargebee

CB is 10 years old. Unlike Zo/FW, it just focuses on managing subscriptions. Its market appears small. It took 4 years to raise VC money. It seems like a feature, not a global powerhouse.

But diving deeper reveals a $1.4Bn machine, enabling global SaaS revolution

The founders spent years finding a problem. Realizing recurring billing was a challenge, CB was born in 2011. Customers questioned its need. They thought it was a feature to be built internally. As SaaS wasn’t even a trend, CB grew slowly.

Adobe’s move from one-time license to subscription SaaS in 2014 changed the game

For making software affordable, subscriptions began to take off. CB, which solved recurring billing, was ready. Raising two rounds, it reached $100M of billing by 2016. Having focused on startups, it began to move upwards.

Its “niche” focus on subscription management went from weakness to strength.

Running subscriptions wasn’t easy. Dynamic pricing, multiple currencies, accounting, compliance was a nightmare. CB made it seamless. By 2018, it reached 1K customers, each paying thousands of $. Giants onboarded. The SaaS gold rush had begun.

CB was selling the shovels enabling this SaaS gold rush

In 2020, it reached $30M+ of revenue. Processing $2Bn of billing, it 20x in 4 years. It was no longer a subscription manager, but helping its customers manage revenue. With an ARPU of $20K, it had a CAC of $40K. Customers retained beyond 2 years were pure profit.

In 2021, it quietly became a $1.4Bn unicorn, surging to $3Bn of billing. Enabling a $250Bn SaaS market, the sky is the limit for CB.

With details here (https://bit.ly/3EfChUF), Chargebee is Charging the Global SaaS revolution from India

I don't understand the need to boycott Bollywood movies because nobody is going to them anyway

Railway Men is incredible

The attention to detail in the sets, background, story and camera makes it gripping

Knew about the Gas tragedy, but the perspective of pain, fear and courage was something else

YRF's first TV show is a must watch

Large consumer businesses satisfy human vice, not virtue:

Greed - Amazon
Pride - LinkedIn
Lust - Tinder
Envy - Instagram
Wrath - Facebook
Gluttony - Apple
Sloth - Netflix

Total value of these platforms is $5Tn+

EdTech’s dark horse is not BYJUs or Unacademy, but $3Bn upstart Eruditus

Few know about Eruditus. It’s been around for 11 years. It focuses on the smaller executive education, not giant K12. E struggled for years to raise, unlike BYJUs/UA. Its first program flopped. Far from a dark horse, it looks set to lose

But an erudite observation reveals a 1,000 Cr global rocketship taking on Coursera

Ashwin Damera’s first startup was a failure. Meeting his co-founder Chaitanya post their MBAs, they started Eruditus. Inspired by MBAs, E began as an offline executive program charging 1 lakh in 2010

The program was a disaster, with only 12 people

But seeing the attendance of the small group, the duo saw potential. MOOCs were flying, EdTech picked steam in 2013. In 2015. E tried to raise, but 20 VCs rejected them. Relentless, they bootstrapped

Eruditus took 6 years to go online, but it finally started taking off

It partnered with Ivy League colleges. E brought Ivies’ executive education to India. By 2017, it was in SEA/Dubai. Seeing global growth, it was finally able to raise. With 5000 students in 50 countries, it upskilled execs

By 2019, E crossed 300 Cr of rev

E’s failed program in 2010 was their key insight. Students loved smaller, private cohort based courses. MOOCs had 5% completion, E had 85%+. The company rocketed to 30K students in 2019. By 2020, it reached $90M of revenue, in 80 countries

Seeing potential, BYJUs, Upgrad all got into exec education

E followed suit by getting into K12. COVID’s techcceleration gave it wings. It acquired coding bootcamp iD tech for $200M. It raised $600M, making it India’s 3rd largest edtech

With details here (https://bit.ly/3zMFOr8), Eruditus is building from India to the world

Learn more about the fintechs changing India's landscape here: https://lnkd.in/eMDKpf_z

Diljit Dosanjh is class, a rarity today who can act and sing very well

Incredible combination that was last there in the age of Kishore Kumar

Chamkila is probably his best till date, with Imtiaz back to his form

Casting Diljit was an inspired choice for a top movie

Kerala has almost 0 potholes in its roads and the car rides are incredibly good

Maharashtra has stretches where there are 0 roads in potholes

I do not see why Maharastra can't do the same as Kerala, with a state budget 4x bigger at 6L crore

Our parents saw the downside of the Industrial Revolution with no need for physical work

Physical gyms picked up in our generation to avoid their poor health

Our next generation will see the downside of AI, with no need for mental work

Mental gyms could proliferate

India’s fastest unicorn isn’t Swiggy, BYJUs or PayTm but construction tech upstart InfraMarket

Construction if offline first. Tech adoption is non-existent. Delays and cost overruns are typical. Strong cartels rule. Outsiders are unwelcome let alone become a tech unicorn

But beneath the concrete lies IM’s explosive, profitable machine

Construction accounts for 10% of the GDP. Unlike property, its broken supply chain is begging to be fixed. Costs are out of control. Disparity of resources is a huge problem. Opacity exists at each stage

IM went customer first, building a tech-driven marketplace

For large developer demand, it become a trusted brand. For small manufacturer supply, it became a one stop shop. With transparency, it improved quality and pricing through the ecosystem

IM’s razor-sharp solution was like water for the thirsty construction market

IM was profitable from day 1. After raising its first round in 2019, it went deeper. By 2020, it had reached $50M in rev, profitably. In Tier 2 cities, it was the only trusted player. COVID accelerated its tech adoption

By 2021, it reached $180M of ARR. It expanded across Asia. Eyeing a $5Tn+ market globally, IM is scratching the surface

With details here (https://bit.ly/314rdra), InfraMarket will power India to Build

I was surprised to score a 9.5/10 on India tech predictions for 2022

Before predicting 2023, here's my favorite 2022 prediction. We predicted Indian unicorns will be more than 2020’s 11 but less that 2021’s 44. As 2022 began, the first 3 months had 14, annualized to 56. But the year ended at 23, bang in the middle of the range.

With such a mad year, this gives courage to predict 2023.

We expect the year to be slow, digesting a few years of easy money. Interest rates and inflation have made tech valuations look horrible. Many overfunded

Pain ahead, but there will be bright spots

1: Five+ unicorns will have their valuation revised
2: SaaS will be amongst India’s top 2 funded sectors, with the lowest death rate
3: Startup funding will be higher than 2019 but lower than 2020
4: Climate tech will raise more than $100M
5: Fintech will mature and be the most funded sector in tech
6: D2C brand rollups like Thrasio will see at least 2 players consolidate or go under

With a 2022 Recap and 2023 prediction here (https://lnkd.in/dMjgdiUy), we hope to score a 10/10 this year

Wishing everyone a Merry Christmas