Mohamed El-Erian

On the great disconnect between financial #markets and the real #economy. H/T Robert Koenigsberger.


#WallStreet #mainstreet #investing #stocks #bonds #investors #fed #centralbanks #federalreserve

Delighted to spend time with Michael Spence, a Nobel laureate in economics.

It is very rare for someone as smart and sharp as Mike to also be so open to thinking through ideas that others put forward, regardless of how off-base they may seem initially.

Thank you Mike for a wonderful conversation.

Two more of the joys I have found in working from home:

Our wonderful pup kept me company under the desk while I was working ... and next to me while I took a nap.

(To be more precise: I decided to be next to her for the nap, forgoing the sofa!).

#dogs #pups #workingfromhome

If you're a football (soccer) fan, add this to the list of highly-unthinkables becoming reality.

(Reminds me of the Brazil-Germany World Cup game -- unforgettable and, also, quite painful still for many of my Brazilian friends.)

#football #soccer #barca #barcelona #munich #bayernmunich #championsleague FCBarcelona FC Bayern Munich UEFA

‪Huge congratulations —to Liverpool, to Mohamed Salah, to his talented teammates and to the fans— for winning the premier league for the first time in thirty years. And they did it in style...with a huge point lead over their nearest opponent and with a record seven games left in the season‬.

Liverpool FC #liverpool

Spotted during our evening walk. Congratulations to the happy couple, whoever they may be! 😀

One of my favorite photos with my dad. #FathersDay

From the Financial Times,

Another interesting weekend ...

#economy #markets Credit Suisse UBS #banks

It’s the weekend. Wishing you all a good one!

Perfect relaxation! Wishing you all a wonderful weekend.

#dogs #dogstagram

‪I’m not sure how these screen savers are generated ... but, I suspect, this is not what most market participants want to see ahead of a new trading week!



#markets #investing #investors ‬#trading

And now this: a huge upset as gutsy #SUI prevails against devastated #FRA with the Swiss goalkeeper producing what could well be his country’s most famous penalty save. #France now joins #Netherlands and #Portugal — out of #euro2020 much earlier than most expected. What a day of stunning football!


UEFA EURO 2020

A lovely Cambridge morning.

#cambridge #cambridgeuniversity University of Cambridge

A Weekend Thought

Like hundreds of millions of people. I am hoping for the stabilization and recovery of markets -- not only to safeguard everyone's savings and retirement but also to minimize the real and present risk of finance reverse-contaminating the economy, jobs and sustainable development.

In my opinion, this does not mean joining the “rose colored“ analyses of developments and prospects.

Throughout my professional career, I have found that unbiased assessments that set out the different influences on the economy and markets are key to navigating uncertainty ... let alone this highly unusual and unsettling period.

Please remember, this is more than a very volatile journey (witness last week's market action). It's also about unfortunate initial conditions and a fluid destination.

Will write and post a Bloomberg Opinion article on this.

Thank you.

Wishing you all a restful and safe weekend.

#markets #economy #volatility #centralbanks #bloomberg #equities #investmentmanagement #economy #volatility #centralbanks #equities #bonds #bloomberg #investing #stocks #fed #interestrates #federalreserve #monetarypolicy #liquidity #yields #stockmarket #selloff #ecb #emergingmarkets #recession #eurozone #currency #forex #inflation #fx #wsj #fixedincome #fomc #debt #investors

From the Financial Times.

The change in the liquidity regime associated with central banks’ “higher for longer” paradigm is imposing a reality check on a growing number of so-called “zombie companies” that had previously survived due to the prolonged period of artificially low interest rates and massive liquidity injections.

#interestrates #economy #banks

Can’t but feel sad for the once-proud and mighty Concorde every time I see it parked in this remote location in London’s Heathrow airport. A good reminder of how fame and fortune can evaporate.

Starting a new book this Saturday morning.
Said to be an insightful analysis of the South Sea Bubble, including the mathematicians, scientists, financial dreamers, schemers and swindlers who “plunged their country into economic disaster...and then made the world rich again.”

I know, I know... This contract expires soon, it's not representative, etc... Yet I still had to include these in my set of unthinkables that have become reality, including the sequence of getting to a negative price.

#oil #markets #energy

I can't stop thinking, and really worrying, about the loss of jobs due to the CoronaVirus

The 16.8 mm lost jobs in the US in just three weeks ( think about this, just three weeks) equal 10% of the labor force -- or the peak unemployment rate during the Great Recession.

All this comes with enormous pain and suffering and the risks of a deeper opioid crisis, domestic violence, etc ...

#jobs #unemployment #recession #joblessness #pain #suffering

Finally, Friday evening! Wishing you all a wonderful weekend.

From Bloomberg.

Depending on how this is applied, the measure can have a significant impact on the functioning of the economy in Russia. The more comprehensive its coverage, the greater the impact … and the larger the spillovers and spillbacks.

Similarly for possible sanctions on the Russian central bank.

More to follow.

#economy #russia #ukraine #russiaukraine #russiaukrainecrisis #ukrainerussiacrisis

What a special day.

Congratulations to all the students of Queens'​ College, Cambridge who were awarded their Masters and Doctorate degrees today. It was wonderful to see you all in College!


#cambridge University of Cambridge

Yes it’s late, and yes it was a long flight but ... family traditions are important! From the airport straight to In-N-Out.

Institutions matter.

For years, strong institutions helped differentiate successful advanced economies from others. Here, via the Financial Times , is where Americans' trust in some institutions stands.

An early morning full moon.

My daughter found this photo from years ago — the era of her “Mighty Marshmallows” football team!

#daughter #daughters #daughterdad #daddaughterlove #daddaughtertime

‪The global growth projections from the latest Economic Outlook from the OECD


#oecd #economy ‬

The conversation with Ezra Klein.

Thank you Ezra for having me on your podcast.

https://lnkd.in/epwdq63T

#economy #markets The New York Times

Our thoughts and prayers are with the many innocent victims of the horrible attack in Minya , and with their families & friends.

This is an absolutely terrible, heartbreaking, shocking and senseless tragedy.

#Egypt #Minya